Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Final Mortgage Insurance Guarantee Parameters

Those of you who are following this blog may remember my tirade a few weeks ago about the changes to CMHC insurance rules, particularly in regards to fixing a minimum credit score at 620 and removing all discretion from lending institutions in working with people on the "bubble" as it were.

The following is extracted from an email delivered to me by the Canadian Association of Mortgage Professionals in regards to this issue which answers a number of these issues.


On Friday, September 19, 2008 the Department of Finance issued its final
mortgage insurance guarantee parameters and accompanying explanatory notes.

The final guidelines follow the initial announcement on the
financial
guarantee for mortgage insurance providers issued July 9, 2008 by
the Department
of Finance.

There are two noteworthy changes from the draft parameters:

1. Elimination of reference to a Total Debt Servicing (TDS) number, replaced
by a
principles based approach;

2. Reduction in minimum credit score to 600 from 620. Three percent "basket"
for flexibility remains;

These modifications follow discussions with stakeholders, including CAAMP.
CAAMP through its submission focused its comments on the minimum credit score
and welcomes the decision by the Department of Finance to adjust the credit
score. For more information on the mortgage insurance guarantee parameters click
here
for Schedule A and click
here
for Schedule B. All of these changes come into effect October 15,
2008.

If you have any questions please contact jmurphy@caamp.org; 416-385-2333 ext. 31Jim Murphy, AMPPresident & CEOCAAMP/ACCHA

This is an example of how concerted effort on behalf of an industry can help to protect the public from a poor legislative or regulatory change.

More importantly, it leaves the job of evaluating credit risk in the hands of the industry as a whole, justifiably in my opinion, given the record of the Canadian credit granting industry in maintaining stability while the rest of North America goes to hell.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Stormy Weather - Any shelter in a storm?

Those of us who grew up on the west coast know all too well that when the weather gets really nasty, when you're out on a boat on the ocean, that it's a good time to head for a safe harbour. Preferably one where you can get out of the wind and waves, behind a solid breakwater if possible.

Well, the world economy is certainly going through a major storm these days, with the storm centred in the US Financial services meltdown as a result of the mortgage crisis.

Some investors are choosing to move to cash investments, others to precious metals, like gold. Both of these strategies are a little like adding ballast to the boat, stabilizing it but not really helping you get where you want to go. Holding cash or near cash investment is a sure fired way to go backwards against inflation and shrink your capital base. Holding gold is probably as high a risk as holding stocks right now... after all stocks are at historically low values and gold is at the top of its cycle of prices...

Actually the ballast in the case of gold might actually sink your ship... to carry the metaphor further.

Anyone who follows this blog knows that I am a big believer in mortgages and Mortgage Investment Corporation investments, because of their inherant stability and underlying security. Like all investments mortgages do require diligent review and careful allocation of funds, in addition to common sense lending (something not practiced in US backed subprime mortgage market previously).

But mortgages do represent a relatively safe harbour in an economic storm, with security based on something that every investor can understand... a home where the borrower has something real to lose in the way of equity.

AIG Bailout - Will they sell AIG Canada?

AIG Canada is one of the most secure investments in the AIG universe with strong Canadian government guarantees behind it. If the US government managed its mortgage industry the way that the Canadian government has, the US wouldn't be in the total mess that it is...
Both McCain and Obama are promising to increase regulation of the financial services industry after this mess.... sounds all too familiar... the leaders promised the same after the Savings and Loan screw up... leading to this???

I think it is unlikely that the US government will make sensible changes in the rules... in an environment with such strong state rights... including the right for any state to make stupid.

Friday, September 5, 2008

Price and Volume Changes in Canada

Headlines in the local papers in Vancouver this week were screaming about a decline in prices on sale of homes in Greater Vancouver of approximately 4% since the spring, and an increase in new listings of an alarming amount.

Excuse me. One of the things that drives markets, of course, is media speculation about the current trends in the market. Sometimes it seems to me that there are those in the media determined to create a real estate crisis even in the absence of one. New statistics from the Canadian Real Estate Association indicate a decline in the volume of sales from last year to this year, along with a significant increase in new listings. But the numbers hardly indicate a crash in the market across Canada, or even in British Columbia, with an increase in average sale price to the end of July of about 8% over the past twelve months.

I caution anyone thinking of buyer or selling to be careful and think for themselves.

Anyone who thought that the real estate boom of the past few years would continue indefinitely, without pause, hasn’t been around very long. It has already been a very long positive market, and it is time for a market pause or even correction. The question at the end of a long boom is how severe the correction might be.

I leave you with this thought. Residential vacancies in Greater Vancouver are less than 1%. Unemployment is at just over 4%, and is stable, despite rapidly increasing populations. Does this sound like a bubble? So when prognosticators tell you that the market here is going to hell, take their opinions with a grain of salt.

Friday, August 15, 2008

Issues in Mortgage Underwriting for Mortgage Investors

Technical Discussion – Strata Ownership in BC

One of our brokers approached me the other day with a question about a self-managed strata corporation in Richmond –

“I have a client with a Strata Townhouse in Richmond who wants to take a mortgage. But they have one of those 'self-managed' strata committees, ran by all of the owners themselves. Is this insane? Is it legal?? There are strata minutes available, but no financial statements. There is also no contingency reserve. Dumb question - Is this safe for a private lender to lend against a building built in 1984 that has proper insurance but no contingency fund? How can they protect themselves? “

The broker obtained a legal opinion on the deal, after verbally discussing it with me, and this is what the lawyers said,

…Self-managed stratas are more common than I would like… As for the Contingency
fund (CRF), the Strata Property Act requires them to keep one, and for good reason. Insurance covers some catastrophic situations, but a myriad of others would leave the owners (and more importantly, the lenders) high and dry - from the basic replacement of pipes, to the building envelope issues we see so much of. Add to that that some lender, or owner might get antsy that there is no CRF and petition to court to appoint an administrator to run the strata, effectively putting control in the hand of a bureaucrat.I would strongly recommend against such a loan.[i]


This got me thinking more generally about issues related to strata corporations, and the implications for lenders, investors and underwriters. A recent report by the Vancouver Island Strata Owners Association (“VISOA”) raises a number of issues arising out of current legislative deficiencies, and proposes remedies in a new Act or Acts governing various aspects of the issues.

There are a large number of issues addressed by the VISAO report, and I’m not going to attempt to address all of them, especially since a number of the issues are primarily related to deficiencies in the Acts that relate to the owners of the strata units or bare lots, not all of which directly impinge on a mortgage interest. Unfortunately most of them do, as the legal interests of a lender are derivative, that is, they are derived from the rights of an owner established under the various acts.

Strata or condominium ownership has grown to 25% of taxable properties across British Columbia, with there now being 460,000 individual strata units. In several large urban areas, strata homes now account for 50% of all taxable properties. Growth in strata homeownership is expected to continue as land prices increase and efforts are made to reduce the “environmental footprint” of new housing.[ii]

In many urban areas such as the Lower Mainland and southern Vancouver Island strata ownership is becoming the de facto standard form of housing for most new homebuyers, indeed the vast majority of home ownership in the next twenty-five years will likely be strata titled property. Increasingly, for lenders, there will be little choice but to invest mortgage dollars into strata properties, as there will be few opportunities otherwise, especially for private mortgage lenders who tend to lend in situations where banks are unwilling to do so.

The Strata Property Act (SPA), the Real Estate Development Marketing Act (REDMA) and the Real Estate Services Act (RESA) affect strata homeownership. Although the RESA and the REDMA are relatively recent (2004) creations in response to concerns of the real estate industry, no public review of strata legislation to address homeowner concerns has occurred since 1998. In the meantime, other provinces have moved ahead with legislation to address emerging concerns in strata (or condo) homeownership. In 2003 the BC government recognized there were significant issues with the SPA and committed itself to a review. This review has not occurred.

VISOA has identified many deficiencies in transparency and accountability under current legislation and has categorized them under the topics of:

A. Strata Governance,
B. Strata Management Licensees,
C. Disclosure,
D. Strata Development Approvals,
E. Property Taxation,
and
F. Strata Fee Equity.

The areas which primarily are of immediate concern to lenders are: Strata Governance, Strata Management Licensees, and Disclosure. Although there are serious issues related to Property Taxation and Strata Fee Equity are also of some concern to ownership, they are of less relevance to the vast majority of mortgage lenders as they do not directly affect the quality of the security on a mortgage loan placed on a strata title.

Strata Governance

The complexities of shared ownership and mutual obligations among individual owners and their corporate body require relevant knowledge of the Strata Property Act and simple, direct and affordable access to due process for enforcing the Act and resolving disputes. Current legislation provides for only cumbersome, intimidating and expensive judicial, arbitration or mediation processes to administer the Act. It effectively indulges irresponsible actions and leaves disputes unresolved.

The main concern for a lender here is the derivative consequence of unresolved or irresolvable conflicts related to the maintenance and/or repair of common property held by a Strata Corp. Because there are requirements that a Strata Corporation must obtain 75% approval for any significant expenditure, including substantial maintenance or repairs, a council with reluctant participant with over 25% of the votes at an annual meeting may find itself unable to make corrective investments or even to repair serious damage to a building. The owners may have a remedy, by suing the corporation, to force necessary repairs, but there is no efficient mechanism by which an owner can enforce responsible conduct by a strata council, especially one where irresponsible members form a substantial minority of the votes (ie: over 25%).

The mortgage interest in a property can be seriously damaged if the quality of a building declines through deferred maintenance or damage that is not repaired. The lender has little or no leverage on the owner to force the strata to take action. To whatever degree the owner is handicapped in enforcing responsible behavior by a strata corporation, the lender is even more vulnerable in that the lender has even less in the way of access to due process than does the owner.

And while the law requires the strata corporation to maintain a contingency fund to pay for repairs and other liabilities of the strata corporation, in the event that a strata council doesn’t set fees high enough to ensure an adequate fund, there is little that an individual owner can do to force the council to do so.

This is one of the reasons that a lawyer would be doubly concerned about a self-managed strata corporation. In the absence of a professional management company there is very little way for an owner (or the lender) to even know that there is a problem regarding the strata council and its conduct in maintaining and protecting the ownership interest.

There is no requirement for audited annual financial statements from the strata corporation so there is no way to know how adequately they have been reported. The preparation of Form 9 disclosure statements by self managed strata corporation is necessarily a function of the elected executive of the strata council. There are no consequences of misreporting or under reporting of potential liabilities against a strata property. The law provides a form of disclosure that requires certain behavior but does little to enforce it.

Lenders (and their lawyers) are understandably nervous about disclosures from self managed strata corporations. Even when there is a professional management company responsible for the strata management, there can be no guarantee of fair, plain, and true disclosure necessary for the registration of a proper security interest. Strata corporations rank with governments in obtain position on title for any obligations of a unit holder to the corporation. Failure to fully disclose potential liabilities to a lender may open a manager to legal consequences for failure to disclose, but practical remedies that do not include suing third parties for negligence do not exist.

Lenders also have no way of knowing when a strata corporation is getting into trouble, either as a result of deficient property management practices and deferred maintenance, or as a result of structure problems, i.e.: leaky condo syndrome.

These problems, and others, which arise out of a fundamentally flawed set of legislative Acts, can ultimately only be resolved by legislation designed to address them. Lenders, on the other, can’t wait for a pie in the sky solution but rather have to take measures to protect themselves.
Which is one of the reasons why many lenders, including private lenders, are seeking independent inspections on all strata mortgages where the strata is self managed, as well as on any strata mortgage where there are any alarm bells at all arising out of an appraisal or an investor interview done at the time of loan approval prior to loan advance.

While issues related to deferred maintenance, structure deficiencies, environmental hazards are potentially present in all real estate transactions and therefore all mortgages, where title is more complicated and processes for resolutions of disputes more difficult, the risk is exacerbated.
Therefore it would be prudent to obtain a higher level of disclosure on Strata Titled properties during underwriting.

Conclusions and closing thoughts

In regards to private investors making direct or indirect investments in strata mortgages, it is important during the review of an investment opportunity to comfort yourself as to whether or not a strata is managed by a professional management team, or self managed; and, either way, that there is an adequate contingency fund as well as a well planned and self-evident maintenance program for the whole strata building. Look closely at the appraisal for any evidence of deferred maintenance or potential deficiencies arising out of the design or execution of the design of the building in the first place. Have your broker talk to the borrower, and see if they have any concerns about the property.

At the end of the day, if investors are going to invest in mortgages, which are still one of the safest and most secure investments available in the marketplace, it is important that investors be aware of any potential risks, and the scale of those risks.

In the case example given at the beginning of this blog, clearly the lawyer is correct. Not only is the property self managed (an alarm bell all by itself, not necessarily fatal, but still of concern) but in the minutes of the strata meeting the disclosure of no contingency fund and some deferred maintenance, combined with an unwillingness to increase strata fees to cover necessary repairs would disqualify this strata unit owner from obtaining a second mortgage. It may also prevent the unit owner from refinancing if these deficits are not remedied within a reasonable period.


[i] This initial quotation is a quotation from an email exchange between a broker and our office.
[ii] All other references in this blog are to a report - Ensuring Transparency and Accountability in BC Strata Developments May 2, 2008, Vancouver Island Strata Owners Association - http://www.visoa.bc.ca/static/VISOA%20Report%20on%20Strata%20Legislation%20Issues%20-%20May%202,.pdf

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

More Trends for BC Real Estate and Mortgages

Beyond obvious sales figures and average sales prices being obtained in any given marketplace over the short term there are a number of things to consider. Market trends pertaining to mortgage investments should also take into account some underlying trends such as:

  1. Rental levels and vacancy rates in rentals
  2. Absorbtion rates of new properties being released into the market
  3. Net migration into market areas
  4. Employment and unemployment statistics

On the first item, rental and vacancy rates, the news is pretty positive for owners of residential real estate, and for lenders in rental housing markets, especially in BC. The rental report from CMHC ending in June for the first half of 2008 indicates a powerful demand for rental housing that has kept vacancy rates below 1% in the major markets of Vancouver and Victoria, as well as in the secondary markets in the southern part of the Province.

If you own market housing in BC you can rent it for a pretty fair price as well, with rental prices rising steadily across all markets except for the northern areas of the province.

On the second item, absorbtion rates of new housing, the results aren't quite as clear cut, although it appears that urban rates are still extremely high, despite a lot of new product coming on the markets. If I were an owner of a presale unit in anywhere other than Vancouver or Victoria I would likely be considering trying to sell it without a gain, or hold it for rental. Any speculative increase in value is probably moot at this point.

Vacancies in new housing coming into the market are still at historic lows, and given the extreme shortage of rental housing in virtually all markets in BC except for logging towns in the north, any surplus presold vacant property will tend to be absorbed into the rental pool. Investors in presold properties should hope that they own units in buildings that permit rentals, as resales next year may be a little slow.

As far as net inmigration into the Lower Mainland and British Columbia is concerned it will likely continue for the foreseable future, given the historically low levels of unemployment and high levels of jobs available. Again, with the exception of the logging industry, job growth is strong throughout the province, but particularly in Vancouver area. No pressure here for any reduction in migrations to the area. Given falling employment in Ontario and Quebec as a result of declines in manufacturing, inmigration to BC may in fact increase in the next part of this economic cycle.

BC, especially urban BC, continues to be a place where you probably want to invest your money in real estate and mortgage investments. In addition to being one of the best places on earth to live, it also still continues to be one of the best places on earth to invest your money in real estate, especially if you always maintain a long term view.

Tuesday, August 5, 2008

Trends without a direction

I have been reading through my regular real estate and mortgage blogs this afternoon, trying to gain a perspective of opinions out there in the mortgage brokerage world, as well as in the larger real estate community.

Several things jump out at me.
  1. Everybody is trying to figure out whether or not Vancouver is going to have a major price correction in the next few months, and if so, how deep, and if so, how long before it turns around.
  2. People are worrying about changes in the mortgage environment as a result of (a) the US housing slump and mortgage crisis or (b) the government of Canada's reaction to (a) above, and whether those changes are going to be good or bad for the mortgage investor.

For example, a recent headline in a mortgage industry blog referred to a comment by the chief economist of the Export Board of Canada, where he refers to an excess of building stock and a potential for a collapse in the housing market because of a surplus of new housing.

I went to the read the report and discovered that the economist made a passing comment about this possibility while directing his main comments at declines in European and Asian housing, basically stating that while Canada isn't in the same condition Yet, it soon could be, if these early indicators are true.

The housing market is not as torrid as it has been, and selling properties now requires a little more common sense than it did at the peak of the markets a year ago. However, in the Lower Mainland prices are still up, and sales are still pretty strong.

I remember the 1990's when you couldn't sell something to save your soul in Vancouver, and the whole Province had the Asian flu. Stats Canada still says that net inmigration to the Lower Mainland will continue at a high level for the foreseable future. Unemployment rates continue to be excruciatingly low!

Boy! Things in BC are really going to Hell! Not.

So, be careful what you read or you could completely miss the boat in terms of making good investments.