Trends without a direction

I have been reading through my regular real estate and mortgage blogs this afternoon, trying to gain a perspective of opinions out there in the mortgage brokerage world, as well as in the larger real estate community.

Several things jump out at me.

1. Everybody is trying to figure out whether or not Vancouver is going to have a major price correction in the next few months, and if so, how deep, and if so, how long before it turns around.
2. People are worrying about changes in the mortgage environment as a result of (a) the US housing slump and mortgage crisis or (b) the government of Canada's reaction to (a) above, and whether those changes are going to be good or bad for the mortgage investor.

For example, a recent headline in a mortgage industry blog referred to a comment by the chief economist of the Export Board of Canada, where he refers to an excess of building stock and a potential for a collapse in the housing market because of a surplus of new housing.

I went to the read the report and discovered that the economist made a passing comment about this possibility while directing his main comments at declines in European and Asian housing, basically stating that while Canada isn't in the same condition Yet, it soon could be, if these early indicators are true.

The housing market is not as torrid as it has been, and selling properties now requires a little more common sense than it did at the peak of the markets a year ago. However, in the Lower Mainland prices are still up, and sales are still pretty strong.

I remember the 1990's when you couldn't sell something to save your soul in Vancouver, and the whole Province had the Asian flu. Stats Canada still says that net inmigration to the Lower Mainland will continue at a high level for the foreseable future. Unemployment rates continue to be excruciatingly low!

Boy! Things in BC are really going to Hell! Not.

So, be careful what you read or you could completely miss the boat in terms of making good investments.